In ten years, the private lending industry won't look anything like today's fragmented ecosystem. Small to mid-sized lenders won't run their own balance sheets - they'll be origination specialists focused on finding deals and managing relationships.

Transactions will flow through integrated platforms that handle everything from origination to securitization. Lenders will compete on their ability to find and qualify borrowers, not on their capital base. Real estate investors will expect instant approvals and transparent pricing based on verified performance history.

We'll see consolidation among technology providers, but fragmentation among origination specialists. The number of SME lenders will actually increase as the barriers to entry fall, but they'll operate as correspondents rather than balance sheet lenders.

This isn't just speculation - the same pattern played out in mortgage lending post-2008. We're now seeing residential bridge lending follow the same evolution, just a decade later.